10 Things to look out for in 2012

Happy New Year to all readers of this column! 2012 brings with it great hope and high expectations for Kenyan athletics coming from a bumper year.

Here is a list of 10 things we can look forward to this year in Kenyan athletics.

1.    As Pamela Jelimo proved to the world in 2008, you can bet on a complete upstart to emerge from Kenya and become a world beater. This year will not be any different. You can be sure that we will be celebrating new talent by the end of the season.

2.    After having one of the most remarkable seasons ever for a Kenyan female athlete, Vivian Cheruiyot looks set to continue her dominance in the long distance races on the track. Even with the highly motivated Ethiopians looking for revenge this year, look forward to another tremendous season by Vivian.

3.    World marathon domination. Kenyans will continue to dominate major city marathons around the world as running standards will rise. After an unbelievable season of some incredibly fast times in the marathon by Kenyan men this year, the world record could be broken once again given the highly competitive nature of that event.

4.    A strong performance by the Kenyan team at the Olympic Games in London at the end of July. After the highly successful Daegu World Championships in 2011 and the Beijing Games in 2008 both in Asia, high standards have been set with 6 gold medals and 15 total medals the minimum expectation level.

5.    Renewed challenges from our Ethiopian neighbours and other African born athletes in the long distance track races. A resurgent Bekele in the 5,000 and 10,000 metres will be tough to beat along with Mo Farah and Bernard Lagat who pose the greatest threat to Kenya’s path to the Olympic podium.

6.    Continued success for women on the track. Pamela Jelimo and Nancy Lagat’s success at the Beijing Olympics was inspired by Janeth Jepkosgei’s Osaka’s exploits and will open the floodgates for more women to follow in their footsteps across all events.

7.    More celebratory dances by our athletes like the “Kemboi dance” at the Daegu World Championships. Some unique dance moves and some showmanship by our athletes after victory can immortalize an athlete even more than the race itself.

8.    A low key cross country season. With the African championships the only major event of the season due to the World Cross Country Championships turning biennial, consequently, cross country isn’t a major focus this year.

9.    For local athletics fans, the centerpiece of the season is the Olympic Trials at Nyayo Stadium at the end of June. The world’s best athletes will fight for selection to compete in the London Games. One of the most competitive trials in the world!

10. A new constitution and elections for Athletics Kenya. Hopefully, a fresh professional set of leaders and a new dispensation to guide the most successful sport in this country. 

Kenya's marathon domination

The marathon is beyond doubt one of the most difficult and attractive races in athletics. The inherent, resonant beauty of the classic distance manifests itself in many ways, and chief among these is that the marathon is perhaps more ethnically diverse than any other major world sport save for football.

No other country in the world has the quality or the depth that Kenya possesses in the marathon. In many ways, our distance supremacy is a symbol for everything that is great about the marathon. Our country is among the worlds poorest, yet we continually produce runners who test the body's physical limits and the mind's imagination.

 Kenya’s dominance of the marathon however this year is truly remarkable! We have produced a total of 85 marathon winners with a few more coming up before the year end.  But 2011 has truly been extraordinary as the emerging results, quality and depth are absolutely astonishing.

For the first time ever, Kenyans have swept the World Marathon Majors with spectacular victories in New York, Chicago, Berlin, London and Boston marathons and each time the course records have been shattered including the world record in Berlin. Kenya also defended its World Championships title in Daegu which counted towards the Majors series.

Doubly impressive were the Kenyan women who made history by sweeping the marathon medals at the World Championships, and winning three out of the five marathon majors.

This is also the year that the world record returned to Kenya since Paul Tergat last held it. Patrick Makau broke the venerable record held by Haile Gebreselassie. Incredibly, Makau is only the 3^rd fastest ever Kenyan this year as Geoffrey Mutai and Moses Mosop ran faster in a wind-aided race in Boston in April.

Mutai is probably the world’s hottest marathon runner at the moment having run the fastest marathon ever and both runs in both tough New York and Boston faster than the easy Chicago course that is famous for its world record attempts and successes.

Indeed 2011 has been a bumper year of Kenya with fast times, course records and personal bests recorded all over the world.

Sample this, even with the ridiculously fast Boston times not counting in the world rankings, Kenyans occupy all the top 22 times ran this year and the first non Kenyan posting a not too shabby 2.06.31 time in 23^rd place.

2011 is the third consecutive year in which marathon times have been dropping fast .In the last three years, the average of the top 10 times have been faster than what the world record time was in 2002.

And the athletes re-writing the record books have been getting younger. In 2001, the average age of the top 10 men was 28.5. A decade later, it's 26.5.

The Marathon used to be the "next step" for aging elite runners after a successful track career. Stars like Haile Gebrselassie and Paul Tergat, both of whom set world marathon records, didn't turn to the marathon until they were 29 and 30, respectively, after dominating the track record lists.

Now it is the first step because of the prize money and the appearance fees (starting with the late Samuel Wanjiru). Runners can take home a million dollars just for running 2 races in a year. Yes they have to perform well to do so, but it's the incentive that is drawing the top talent and with that top talent comes faster times.  In 2001, six different countries had a top-10 men's marathon runner. In 2011, it's Kenya one through twenty two!

In Kenya now many 22 year old athletes in their prime are skipping the track scene and gravitating to the classic distance mostly in search of the instant riches the marathon provides. 

  

So how did we come to this and what does this mean for the future of Kenya marathoning?

Marathons and road races in general are far more lucrative than track races. Generally there are only about 2-3 major 10km track races in the European circuit in a year compared to the numerous lucrative road races all over the world. So what’s an average 10, 000m runner to do if he has to earn a living from his sport? The choice is obvious!

The stunning depth of the Kenyan marathoning scene definitely poses tough questions for Athletics Kenya when it comes to the championship team selection.

Do they pick just the three fastest performers of the year or are we ready for a marathon trials format like the track performers. The facts are the Kenyans marathon runners are too deep and run too many races where the top guys don't go head to head. We have one guy that is the World Champion, One guy that is the World Record holder and two additional guys that have run faster than those two on Boston's course.
Plus a few others that have won major races and others that may actually peak next year.

There would obviously be a backlash to this as the agents and the other marathons would lobby very strongly to make sure that doesn't happen. Imagine its London... who's going to show up at Boston or Rotterdam?

There are arguments for both formats but given the sheer depth of marathon runners under the Olympic and World Championships qualifying times, which at the moment is about 75 athletes, the time is ripe for a marathon trials for any major championships, say in February of a particular championships year.

Geoffrey Mutai, the fastest ever at the moment, is in favour of such an arrangement. And I agree with him. Bring on the top 15 marathon runners together for a trial wherever and the top 2 are automatically selected with one decided by committee based to championship experience

Possibly as a result of our athletes’ successes in these marathons around the world, there is a chance that road race organizers will limit or discourage our Kenyan athletes to compete or even win in their events in favor of their local athletes.

The negative side of this is that we are becoming victims of our own success. With the numerous numbers of athletes seeking competitive opportunities around the world, there is a sense of frustration among race directors and federations that there just too many Kenyans in their races.

A 2.06 marathon runner in Kenya is an average runner ranked only in the top 25 in the world which means that that if he doesn’t consistently win  or place in the top 3 in any event he runs in, his income will dwindle significantly. Compare that to say a top European athlete who runs 3 minutes slower than him and earns triple his income!

With the production of seemingly endless world class marathon athletes from Kenya, it is inconceivable that limitations or discouragement by race organizers will lessen their prowess on the world marathon scene.

Kenya's Daegu success

It seems that Asia has a certain positive appeal for Kenya’s national athletics team given its dominance whenever a major championship is held there. The performances of Kenya’s athletes at the ’88 Seoul Olympics, ’07 Osaka World Championships, 08’ Beijing Olympics and this year’s Daegu World Championships attest to that fact.

Daegu was by far Kenya’s best ever global championships with our athletes winning 7 gold medals and accumulating a total of 17 medals. In doing so, the team exhibited some amazing performances that proved that we are solidly a global athletics super power finishing 3^rd overall behind the USA and Russia.

For the 1^st time ever, three of our athletes defended their titles from the previous championships, one athlete successfully completed a double win, and our athletes went 1-2 in 6 different events in the middle and long distance events. These statistics show how amazing Kenyan athletes are dominant on the world stage in the middle and long distance events.

Perhaps the most positive outcome of these Daegu championships has been the showcase of dominance by our women. For the first time in any major championship, the Kenyan ladies have stolen the limelight from the men. With a total of 8 out of 9 possible medals from the distance events and another 2 in the middle distances, their performance is unparalleled in World Championships history.

Edna Kiplagat started off Kenya’s golden week with a tremendous run in the marathon leading the women to a first ever clean sweep of the medals.  Our female marathoners were eager to prove that they are indeed the best going by their exemplary record in the big city marathons.

Vivian Cheruiyot, as many would agree, was simply fabulous! In becoming the first Kenyan woman to win double gold medals in the distance events in a World Championships and successfully defend her title from Berlin, she displayed remarkable self confidence and total dominance not seen in a while. Cheruiyot had an astounding championship!

Clearly on her way to assuming legendary status as queen of the 5000 metres, she now only has the Olympic title to chase after. Now after discovering her potential at the longer distance, she can choose whichever distance to run in London 2012. After her exploits in Daegu, I don’t see anyone standing in her way if she maintains the hunger for success going.

There’s nothing more exciting for our nation like the dominance of the 3000m steeplechase. Kenya once again proved why it is the most successful nation in that single event in championship history. Kenya has won this event consistently since 1991! So much so that we have come to expect it every time.

Ezekiel Kemboi, this year’s winner and defending champion, produced a remarkable finish, in a slow race totally suited to his style, to lead his teammate to 1-2 finish. In winning his third global title, Kemboi lays claim to being one of the greatest championships steepler ever. Showing incredible consistency, he has been winning championship medals since 2002 and has more World / Olympic medals than anyone else!

Kemboi has a certain exuberance and bravado about him going by his celebration after his win. He is one of the most entertaining athletes on the global scene often drawing attention to himself and delivering the goods with style.

The men’s 800m final was highly anticipated with superstar David Rudisha finally striking his first global gold. With the result never in doubt, it was the manner that he would achieve it that fans wanted to witness. Rudisha has become such a dominant figure in his event that his competitors now just fight for the minor places.

Probably the most satisfying victory for Kenya at these championships had to be the first ever gold medal in the men’s 1500m. Asbel Kiprop finally lived up to his top billing and showed that he learnt his lessons well from previous tactical disappointments of Osaka ’07 and Berlin ’09 to execute his race plan perfectly. Pre-race favorite Silas Kiplagat who won the silver medal still had a strong accomplishment despite his lack of championship experience. These two athletes at only 22 years are the future of the event and with the right focus, could dominate it for years to come.

The men’s marathon was another showcase of dominance by defending champion Abel Kirui who won impressively by two and a half minutes over his compatriot Vincent Kipruto. Following his championship record performance in Berlin ’09, Kirui has proved to be the consummate championship performer and the ultimate ambassador for Kenyan marathoning given his jovial personality and big smile at the finish.

As much as these Daegu Games were a tremendous success, there is certainly room for improvement. In the men’s 5000 and 10,000m we missed out on medals for the first time in a long time. The quality of the athletes in those two events wasn’t as good as in previous years and it showed when it came down to the last lap sprint. These two distance events have been characterized by extremely fast last laps and athletes lacking that all important quality just don’t stand a chance of medaling.

The underachievement of our athletes in Daegu included the 3rd place finish of Milcah Chemos was a big upset given her dominance in the women’s 3000m steeplechase all season. The Olympic champion Nancy Lagat in the 1500m was obviously having an off year and didn’t make it to the final. Same as Daniel Kipchirchir Komen in the men’s 1500m who, for the third time of selection to the national team, still has never made a global final. My earlier justification for Nixon Chepseba’s inclusion to the Daegu squad over Komen now has been vindicated given his storming win over all the medalists in the Zurich Diamond League event this past Thursday.

So it’s back to the selection process. Extremely high standards have been set by this group of athletes and Athletics Kenya must select individuals capable of making it to the podium in the future. The wildcard system must be put to good use in selecting capable individuals who probably weren’t on top of their game at the trials. London 2012 is just 11 months away and we must work on our weaknesses if we expect to win more medals at the Olympics.

There were so many incredible stories and performances by our athletes at these championships. It is time for our athletes to ride on their successes to endorse local brands and become effective ambassadors of sport for the country.

Congratulations to all the athletes who have brought glory to Kenya in Daegu in its best ever championships.

High Hopes for Team Kenya in Daegu World Championships

This week, the world’s best athletes converge in the city of Daegu, South Korea for the 13^th edition of the World Athletics Championships, the stage is set for yet another scintillating week of enthralling performances and hopefully, some show-stopping individuals who will rise to the occasion.

This current Kenyan team is capable of exceeding the memorable performances which marked the last time the world championships were held in Asia five years ago. Asia indeed has been good to us with very successful campaigns in the Olympics and World Championships in which we have participated in that continent.

The national team, made up of a mix of experienced performers and fresh faced youngsters, looks set to improve on Berlin 2009’s great medal tally with some real prospects of winning.

Already the women’s marathon team has completed an historic 1-2-3 sweep of the medals led by Edna Kiplagat, Prisca Jeptoo and Sharon Cherop making a tremendous improvement from Berlin 2009 where they only got 10^th place. What a fantastic achievement by our ladies in the marathon!

This is a great start to the championships and will undoubtedly spur the rest of the team to shoot for the podium places as the competition unfolds.  With hot favorites David Rudisha and Micah Chemos who have already begun their campaigns with relative comfort through the first rounds yesterday, expectations of fans of our athletes in those events are high.

The men’s 10,000m today should be an interesting one. We have a fairly strong Kenyan team that could challenge for a medal but it would take an incredibly and even lifetime type performance to bag the gold in light of the strong competition in the event.

However, expect some surprises. As with any championships, they provide the opportunity for someone’s moment to shine. Interestingly, our women could win gold in events our men won’t. The Kenyan quality in the women’s 5000m and 10,000m is top notch and are set to defend their titles from Berlin.

 I’m expecting a gutsy individual gold medal performance from the women in the middle distances. My dark horse picks for these championships are the 1500m runners. I believe they are suitably motivated and prepared to bring home the gold in this event for the first time in the history of the world championships for Kenya.

Medal predictions are tough to make as always but I’m making a safe bet of 6 gold medals. Anything less will be a disappointment as I feel that the team can achieve much more.

Regardless of their performance in Daegu, let us all support our national team as they elicit a tremendous amount of national pride and patriotism when they take on the rest of the world.

Sports Marketing potential in Kenya

Sports marketing was once limited to sportsmen and women wearing corporate logos on their clothing or equipment, and stadiums ringed in signage touting various brands or services.  No more.

While these kinds of “endorsements” will likely play a part in sports sponsorship for years to come, today’s sponsorship proposition demands something more than a logo displayed by a sportsman or prominently placed in a sporting venue.

The most effective sports sponsorships are those that build brand equity, linking the brand to certain positive associations in memory, and providing a win-win association between sponsor and the sponsored.

The challenge facing marketers today is to enhance a sponsor’s brand by ensuring that its customers have the right kinds of experiences with its products and services in the context of sponsorship.

Brand recognition and recall are keys, of course, but so are less tangible links that connect customer experience with the values which characterize a brand and differentiate it from its competitors. These links can be symbolic, experiential, or functional – but they are essential in establishing a strong connection between the brand and its sponsored organization or event.

Sports is the 3^rd largest category of sponsorship spending in Kenya with almost Ksh half a billion spent on sports sponsorships in 2009. This number represented almost a third of all sponsorship spending in the same year. Experts predict that sports sponsorship spending will increase to more than Ksh 1.5 billion by 2012, and continue to represent between 55 and 60 percent of overall sponsorship spending in Kenya.

At these spending levels, marketers must maximize their investment, leveraging money spent across a spectrum of consumer, trade, employee and media activities. As one expert has noted, “A company will only realize the full value of the sponsored property when it is used as a central platform around which other activities are built. Knowing how to leverage sponsorship is as much in the interest of the sponsored as the sponsors.”

Sponsoring organizations should not be afraid of cost – but they should seek to make the most of their investment on every possible front.

One word of warning for sports sponsors: don’t get starry-eyed, zeroing in on your favourite sport, team or athlete with little or no thought to your brand’s target market. How similar are your customers with the fan base of the sport or team you are considering? What competing companies in your market are doing sports sponsorships, and with whom? And, are you willing to spend at least Ksh 5 in support for every shilling spent for a sponsorship.

If the fit is there, the opportunities are great for maximizing success in both short-term sales building, and longer term brand building. The greatest success with sponsorships can be realized when:

    • Engaged fans are greatly involved in the product/service category. The larger the percentage of a particular sport or event’s fan base that is heavily involved in a product category, the more likely the sponsorship is to have maximum impact.  A rally event is a better fit for the maker of shock absorbers or sports drinks than it is for a provider of home health care services!

    • The event is supported by serious money. If a company hasn’t invested at least as much in promoting the sponsorship as it has in acquiring the rights to an opportunity, the odds of success are not high.

    • The company uses the sponsorship to communicate a clear message about the brand to a responsive target. Linking a brand to a property or event to build brand awareness “in name only” is a poor investment. The connection between sponsorship and brand should embrace a common ideal or value – making the message as important as the property itself.

    • There is a clear link between the product and sponsorship. When the connection is weak or stretched, impact is diminished. If it takes longer than five seconds to explain the connection between your brand and a sports marketing opportunity – most target buyers won’t “get it.”

Seasoned marketers know that the cost of reaching new customers can be 6-8 times the cost of maintaining and servicing existing ones. So if an organization’s brand and goals align readily with the target audience for a sports venue, team or event, if the sponsoring organization is willing to commit the funds and creative capital necessary to maximize the partnership and if the sports organization has an infrastructure that can support it, the possibility for a win-win collaboration is high.

Rudisha lives up to his potential by setting a new world record

Exciting times for athletics fans this season! A new world record was broken this Sunday, a rarity for middle distance events nowadays, by David Rudisha who delivered on his exceptional promise to set the 800m world record in the Berlin Diamond League.

His time of 1:41.09 took the narrowest 0.02s margin off Danish legend Wilson Kipketer's previous best, set back 13 years ago.

Rudisha, like his predecessor, is a beauty to watch. Long, powerful strides and determined but smooth drive to the finish characterizes his form on the track.

Uniquely, this was the 1^st world record in the 800 meters by a Kenyan even though there have been many local athletes that have dominated the event for years.

Making up for his disappointment on the same track at last year’s World Championships where he failed to make the final, Rudisha came out with purpose and demonstrated to the world why 2009’s performance was just but an aberration to his fledging ascendancy of the event.

He went to back to the drawing board and came back motivated as ever to assert his supremacy of the 800m.

Looking back at his preparations for the year, I believe the catalyst of his successful season was the decision to improve his 400 meter times in the off-season in Australia to sharpen his speed. It has paid dividends now for the longer event as he is confident and comfortable at any pace.

Because the key to the record was a fast 1^st lap close to 49 seconds. Any improvement of this fabulous record has to come from running the first lap faster because physiologically, it would be difficult to run the 2^nd lap faster than the first. And Rudisha optimally did just that.

Even more impressive is that Rudisha is just 21 years and already he is the fastest ever! His natural ability, knowledge of and subsequent execution in the event is just mind-boggling!

As Rudisha mentioned in an interview earlier, “the first step to breaking the world record is to run without pressure”.

So will he run faster? I believe so. The 800 meters best hasn’t seen much of a drop like the other middle distance events in the last 29 years. It has only been reduced by 0.64 seconds within that period. If Rudisha can remain injury-free for the rest of his career and given his young age, he could slowly milk this 800m cash cow for years. 1.39 isn’t too difficult to foresee in the coming years.

However, the likes of Kaki and his other competitors must rue their chances as they came in on the wrong era. Where for the foreseeable future, the real race will be for 2^nd place!

Having interacted with Rudisha, I strongly believe Kenya has a superstar for many years to come. He has the tools and the personality to be a marketer’s dream. Much credit goes to Bro. Colm O’Connell for nurturing this phenomenal athlete from his junior days to top of the world status.  For now, let's celebrate a proud moment - a new World Record for Kenya!

Congratulations David Rudisha for the fabulous performance!

New Kenyan Olympic Champion 2 years later

The biggest news in recent times for Kenyan athletics was the revelation that Kenya could get its 6^th gold medal eight months later courtesy of the Olympic 1500m champion Rashid Ramzi’s A sample from Beijing testing positive for the blood booster EPO-CERA.

This news couldn’t have been better for Asbel Kiprop, the silver medalist in the event, who stands to be elevated to gold and Kenya who had its best Games ever, even without that medal. However with it, shows a complete dominance of the middle distances with a sweep of the men and women’s 800 and 1500 gold medals. A feat no other country has ever accomplished in Olympic history.

I was both disappointed and delighted at the news of the positive test.  But I and many others were far from surprised that Ramzi was a cheat. If circumstantial evidence were permissible for positive tests then Ramzi would have been close to the top of most people's lists. That he managed to join a celebrated group of world and Olympic champions has been galling in the past few years as there is no bigger crime in athletics than making a mockery of one of its premier events – the men’s 1500m.

Assuming his B sample comes back positive this week, he'll be stripped of his gold medal and banned for two years. But I believe he should be banned for life! Clearly there is no way one can innocently ingest EPO-CERA prior to the Olympic Games and expect to be welcomed back 2 years later.

I am very delighted at the retrospective tests that the IOC is doing now because it sends a strong message of deterrence. The emergence of CERA offers the latest proof of why holding samples for eight years is a good idea. There is nothing particularly new about the drug itself. It is very much like EPO in that it elevates red blood cell count and has legitimate uses for people with renal failure or cancer who have trouble keeping their counts elevated.

In the doping world, that makes it easier to take -- maybe only once a month instead of once a week -- but also more risky because it's detectable longer.

Those who got hold of it around the time of the Beijing Olympics may have been hoping no test would be developed for it -- or maybe they underestimated the amount of time it would stay in their system.

Ramzi’s rise was backed up with little or no recognition but was meteoric.  A former Moroccan with limited prospects as a junior, he joined the Bahrain military and prospered under the coaching of Moroccan Khalid Boulami, a former Olympic 5000m medalist and brother to Brahim, the infamous EPO cheat who was a thorn to Kenyan steeplechasers early this decade.

In 2004 he won a world indoor silver medal over 800m. But then, early in that Olympic summer, he stunned everyone by ending the four-year winning streak of Hicham El Guerrouj at the Rome Golden League event and lowering his personal best by nine seconds. 

In Athens, despite being one of the favourites, he mysteriously trailed in 11th in his semi-final. We hardly saw him again until the following year's world championships in Helsinki. He won gold at 1500m and 800m, unprecedented in the modern era. He almost embarrassed his competitors with his ease of victory.

Bahrain rejoiced but he was hardly embraced by the sport. Infrequent appearances added to whispered suspicions and, though he took silver at the world championships of 2007 it was his first competition of the summer. He was, if nothing else, enigmatic. His Beijing gold was Bahrain's first Olympic success and he was richly rewarded and feted on his return.

Ramzi’s presence at the past two major championships only served to delay Asbel Kiprop’s climb up the medal stand. Juvenile tactics aside, the teenage prodigy, as I had pointed out in this column, was destined for greatness.

So Kiprop will be Kenya’s 4^th 1500m Olympic champion albeit in a different manner and means that he joins an elite set of middle distance heroes that include Kip Keino, Peter Rono and Noah Ngeny.

The saddest thing about Kiprop’s ascent from being the silver medalist to Olympic champion is that he will probably receive his gold medal in an envelope, minus the adulation and celebration that the feat deserves.

And that’s the tragic thing about athletes who win by cheating. They deny the legitimate winners their moments of glory, that unforgettable victory lap, the sponsorship gains etc.

All I can say is good riddance for drug cheats like Ramzi and kudos to our newest Olympic champion Asbel Kiprop.